Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Seattle Mariners (57-50) continue their three-game series at the Tampa Bay Rays (64-43) Tuesday with first pitch from Tropicana Field scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Raysodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first game of the series Monday, 8-2, as the Mariners roughed up Rays starting RHP Michael Wacha for 6 earned runs. Seattle's 1B Ty France stood out by hitting 3-for-5 with 1 home run and 3 RBI.

Season series: Mariners lead 5-0.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi makes his 20th start for the Mariners. Kikuchi is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K Wednesday against the Houston Astros.
  • Kikuchi beat Tampa June 18 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle's 5-1 home victory.

RHP Luis Patino is on the mound for the Rays. Patino 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over six starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday against the New York Yankees.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 16 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

Mariners at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-160) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Rays 5, Mariners 2

Money line (ML)

"LEAN" to the RAYS (-170) for a half unit - if at all - because we are getting the worst of the number as there has been "sharp" line movement toward Tampa.

Steam on the Rays has pushed them up from a -135 money line favorite on the opener to the current price based on the following reasons: Patino's fantastic numbers at home, Tampa's clear-cut edge in relief pitching and the recent acquisition of DH Nelson Cruz should improve the Rays' hitting vs. left-handed pitching.

First of all, the Rays' relievers are ranked first or second as a unit in WAR, SIERA, FIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.

While Seattle's bullpen has pitched well this season, we saw a Mariners collapse Sunday against the Texas Rangers thanks in large part to Seattle trading away awesome closing RHP Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline.

Also, Tampa's lineup struggled against lefty pitching during the first half of the season which prompted the Rays to trade for Cruz who's deadly vs. left-handed pitching. Moreover, Cruz is 4-for-5 lifetime against Kikuchi with 2 home runs 100.6 mph exit velocity.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I don't "like" Tampa enough to lay it with the Rays -1.5 (+125).

Furthermore, Tampa is 18-23 ATS as a home favorite and Seattle is 27-20 as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because we are seeing "reverse line movement" despite one-sided action and Over-friendly trends which are most certainly baked into the price.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Over but the Under is heavily juiced and is heading to a flat 8-run total. It's always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

That said, Seattle is 30-16-1 O/U as a road underdog and the Over has cashed in three of the five Mariners-Rays meetings this season.

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